The Dutch civil society has a longstanding tradition of actively mobilizing against nuclear weapons. Historically, the public opposition against nuclear weapons was channeled through civil society, particularly Christian organizations. Indeed, the Dutch Christian Democrats have been strongly influenced by Interkerkelijk Vredesberaad (IKV) and its Catholic counterparts Pax Christi (since 2006, both IKV and Pax Christi merged into PAX). At the height of the Euromissiles crisis, the anti-nuclear movement orchestrated what is considered the largest protest in Dutch history, marking a significant achievement for the movement. In addition, in 2015, a coalition of Dutch NGOs, led by PAX, collected more than 45,000 signatures of Dutch citizens to request a parliamentary debate on a national prohibition of nuclear weapons.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the strong civil society engagement against nuclear weapons, public opinion has been ambivalent at best when it comes to hosting nuclear weapons, and nuclear deterrence at large. A 2019 ICAN opinion poll found that 49 percent of Dutch respondents were in favor of ending nuclear deployments to their country, with only 32 percent in favor of continuing to host them. A follow-up poll conducted in 2020 confirmed the finding, with 57 percent of Dutch participants indicating their approval of the removal of nuclear weapons from the Netherlands. These numbers are at the lower end compared to what the same opinion polls find in other host states, notably Germany and Italy. Moreover, these opinion polls do not offer participants to choose from various options. When asked to indicate their support on a variety of non-exclusionary proposals, including the withdrawal of nuclear weapons in an arms deal with Russia, the support for an unconditional withdrawal of US nuclear weapons is close to 50 percent for Dutch respondents in 2020. Similarly, the ICAN polls find a large majority of Dutch citizens favoring entry into the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Yet, when asked to indicate support for a variety of non-excluding options, including unilateral accession to the treaty or only joining if nuclear weapon states will join as well, only 48 percent of Dutch respondents wanted to join unilateral in 2020.
Still, it can be said that public opinion has historically been ambivalent to outright negative with regard to nuclear deployments in the Netherlands. However, a notable change has occurred since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A poll conducted in September 2020 and again in June 2022 with the same participants reveals that backing for an unconditional withdrawal of US nuclear weapons decreased from 49 percent to 37 percent. Notably, only the proposal of a withdrawal in the context of a US-Russia agreement garnered majority support in both years. Moreover, while only 22 percent of respondents said in 2020 that US nuclear weapons should not be withdrawn under any circumstances, 39 percent answered so in 2022.